IMD Projects ‘Below Normal’ Monsoon for the First Time in 11 Years

Why in News

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned that India is staring at a “below normal” southwest monsoon (June-September).
• India is likely to receive only 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm rainfall this year.
• The primary reason cited is the likely development of an El Nino — the periodic warming of the Central Equatorial Pacific.
• This warning comes after years of surplus or normal monsoons (save 2023).

Impact

• Economic: Threatens agricultural output, particularly in rainfed areas; could lead to higher food inflation.
• Social: Distress for farmers ahead of the Kharif season; potential for rural economic slowdown.
• Policy: Forces the government to plan for fertilizer supply and irrigation management amidst global West Asia war disruptions.
• Ecological: Potential for groundwater depletion if lack of rain forces excessive borewell extraction.

GS Paper Focus

GS-1 — Geography: Important Geophysical phenomena (Monsoon, El Nino); GS-3 — Environment: Disaster management. POLICIES & SCHEMES: 1. Long Period Average (LPA) measurement. 2. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — potential offsetting factor. FURTHER READING: * M. Mohapatra (Director-General, IMD). * Jacob Koshy’s report on monsoon history. CLUSTER CONNECTION: Ecological Governance Crisis: India’s “dependence on weather” for its food security is re-exposed, as the combination of El Nino and global supply chain disruptions (fertilizers) creates a multi-pronged threat to the agrarian economy. SYSTEM-LEVEL INSIGHT: The “Below Normal” forecast reveals the “Climate-Supply Chain Nexus.” A weak monsoon in 2026 is no longer just a meteorological event but an economic stress-test, as it coincides with the West Asia crisis which has already restricted the passage of fertilizers and energy through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving rainfed agriculture doubly vulnerable to global shocks.

Interview Angle

“How can India build ‘climate-resilient’ agriculture in the face of erratic El Nino cycles and global geopolitical disruptions affecting input supplies like fertilizers?”. ENGLISH VOCABULARY & PHRASES: 1. Below normal — lower than the average or expected level — Basic 2. Rainfed — (of crops) grown using only natural rainfall — Basic 3. El Nino — periodic climate pattern involving warming of Pacific waters — Intermediate 4. Dipole — a pair of equal and oppositely charged or exerted poles — Advanced 5. Abatement — the ending, reduction, or lessening of something — Intermediate ________________ ==================== ARTICLE 6 ==================== TOPIC: Agricultural Economics and Federal Friction EN_BLOCK